As of October 23, 2025, Tropical Storm Melissa is in the Caribbean Sea and is expected to become a major hurricane in the coming week. Forecasters warn that its slow-moving nature could cause prolonged periods of heavy rainfall and flash flooding for parts of the Caribbean, including Haiti, Jamaica, and the Dominican Republic.
Current status and forecast:
Location: Melissa is currently in the central Caribbean, several hundred miles south of Hispaniola.
Movement: It is moving at a slow, meandering pace, which increases the risk of heavy and continuous rainfall over land areas.
Intensification: While wind shear has kept its strengthening in check, it is expected to weaken and subside over the next few days. It will then pass over exceptionally warm ocean waters, which could fuel it to strengthen into a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane by early next week.
Uncertain track: There is still uncertainty in the long-term forecast.
Scenario 1: The storm could wander farther west toward the Cayman Islands and Cuba before curling northeastward into the Atlantic.
Scenario 2: It could take a quicker northward turn sooner over Haiti or eastern Cuba, moving away from land and into the open Atlantic.
U.S. outlook: Direct impacts on the U.S. mainland are considered unlikely, though interests along the East Coast are still monitoring the storm.
Expected impacts in the Caribbean:
Haiti and Jamaica: A hurricane watch has been issued for southern Haiti, and a tropical storm watch is in effect for Jamaica. These areas could see rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches or more, leading to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.
Dominican Republic and Cuba: These nations are also at risk for heavy rain and strong winds.
Seasonal context:
Melissa is the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had predicted an above-normal season, forecasting between 13 and 19 named storms.